August 11th – August 17th
PERSPECTIVES by Eric F. Risley
Architect Partners is dedicated to assisting in building enduring, long-term fundamental value. The observations below aim to keep our eye on that core objective and offer a data-led perspective and, hopefully, insight.
Let’s discuss how several recent industry narratives intertwine, using data rather than opinion as our guide. To simplify, we focus on Ethereum and ETH, which is timely given ETH’s rapid rise from $1,839 on May 1 to $4,435 as of this writing. We consider fundamentals as well as the emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset strategy companies (DATs).
Data-backed fact: Ethereum’s ecosystem is robust and growing. Dapp count, user activity, stablecoin throughput, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization adoption signal expanding commercial use. These trends make a strong long-term fundamental value case.
Data-backed fact: The timing and scale of the ETH price surge closely match the increase in ETH buying demand driven by ETFs and DATs.
Reasonable conclusion: Commercial momentum is critical and real, but recent price performance is very likely affected, and possibly distorted, by ETF and DAT demand more than by pure usage growth.
Takeaway: Long-term value follows fundamentals. Currently, ETH appreciation is far outpacing usage growth. History shows that capital markets and asset values reflect investor expectations about future fundamentals. At times, disconnects occur and reveal themselves over time. We take no position on fair value, simply observing the underlying data to better understand.
For those interested in the underlying data and sources, please reach out.