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MACRO ECONOMIC SENTIMENT
Nothing seems to diminish enthusiasm for investable assets, including crypto. Multiple wars, tariffs, reshaping of global security arrangements, first inflation and now apparent job creation weakness, economic and political policy uncertainty, US government shutdown, and perhaps internecine political warfare have all been shrugged off as no big deal by markets.
CRYPTO INDUSTRY SENTIMENT
Bitcoin hit yet another an all-time high, ETH got its mojo back and appreciated by 75%, stablecoin legislation passed in the US, Gemini, Figure and Bullish got public, the long awaited “Altcoin rally” arrived (up 66%), and the booming “digital asset treasury strategy” phenomenon have all bolstered crypto sentiment in Q3 2025.
Q3 2025 CRYPTO HIGHLIGHTS
M&A: another best quarter ever
The digital asset treasury (DAT) phenomenon played an outsized role this past quarter, driving transaction consideration up by over 100% from Q2.
Private Financing: remains steady in number of transactions
Number of financings was flat but total invested capital was down by 40%, again likely influenced by the DAT boom which attracted $90B in private and public capital in Q3.
Public Markets: Steady valuations, with variability by sector
The Architect Partners Crypto Index was up 6% this quarter with most groups remaining pretty flat. The winners this quarter were the Bitcoin Network Operators, who were up a median of 87% this quarter and the biggest decline was from the Digital Asset Treasuries that were down 29%.
STRATEGIC THEMES THAT ARCHITECT PARTNERS ARE TRACKING
To keep us honest let’s continue tracking our assessments of important crypto industry themes
Crypto Has Delivered Exceptional Value Creation
- Q4 2024 Statement: Crypto has attracted $130B of risk capital which today represents $3.4T in value and 25x returns, much better than traditional venture investing. This far outpaces the Internet at the same point in market development.
- Q1 Progress: Our 2025 update to Family Ties was published on February 13th. Q3 2025 ended with $2.8T in value (vs. $3.4T in Q4) but the fundamental point remains: crypto investment returns have been exceptional.
- Q2 Progress: $3.8 trillion as of June 30, again in record territory.
- Q3 Progress: A small tick up to $4 trillion.
Initial Public Offerings are Coming
- Q4 2024 Statement: Numerous companies are on that track but 2026 may be stronger than 2025.
- Q1 Progress: Circle just released their S-1 and Amber Group debuted on the NASDAQ.
- Q2 Progress: Circle’s exceptional debut and the unexpected rise of the treasury strategy.
- Q3 Progress: Gemini, Figure and Bullish all debut.
Leverage Is Quickly Returning
- Q4 2024 Statement: Is leverage friend or foe this time?
- Q1 Progress: Friend so far, with risk management high priority. Data is difficult to compile but we see significant growth in both collateralized and uncollateralized lending.
- Q2 Progress: Q1 trend continuing.
- Q3 Progress: Hard to track accurately but anecdotal evidence suggest it continues to build, both institutional and retail.
Mergers & Acquisitions – It’s Time for Urgency
- Q4 2024 Statement: Traditional financial services companies are entering crypto, a potentially existential competitive threat to some crypto-native players. Both will be spurred into action.
- Q1 Progress: Legislation is important for action but traditional financial services players are already re-engaging in preparation.
- Q2 Progress: Record quarter with participation by both leading crypto natives and the beginning of the long-term trend of traditional financial services embracing crypto and digital assets.
- Q3 Progress: The digital asset treasury (DAT) phenomenon reaches peak?
Moving Beyond Speculation – An Important Next Step
- Q4 2024 Statement: Stablecoins are proving to be a real-world use case, with businesses and consumers partaking. Other crypto use cases with both viability and scalability remain unclear.
- Q1 Progress: The payments use case is also taking root.
- Q2 Progress: Payments, often using stablecoins, are tracking at $100 – $300 billion annually and growing quickly. See Architect Partners: Crypto Payments & Payment Infrastructure: The Strategic Opportunity (Part I: Why Crypto Payments). Under the same theme, US stablecoin legislation continues to advance.
- Q3 Progress: Stablecoin legislation passes, another step toward payment use cases.
Eric F Risley
October 4, 2025