Key public market takeaways from the Architect Partners annual year-end report on crypto M&A, Markets, and Financings (here):
Landmark IPO Year: 2025 saw major IPOs (eToro, Circle, Bullish, Figure, Gemini) average a 64% first-day share price increase.
Incumbents Underperformed: Median share price for incumbent public crypto companies (ex-miners) dropped 19%, trailing traditional indexes, Bitcoin, and ETH.
Crypto Enterprise Value Up 33%: Total public company EV reached $500B, up from $375B.
Varying Valuation Multiples: Multiples range from “modest” (Coinbase 7.2x EV/revenue) to high (others >15.0x), reflecting different business models.
Miners Outperformed on AI Hope: Bitcoin network operators saw 59% YoY share appreciation, outpacing Bitcoin.
DAT Compression: Seven major DATs are down a median of 59% from initial price, trading at a median mNAV of 0.8x.
Outlook: 2026 is poised for major IPOs (Kraken, BitGo, etc.) and the Securitize SPAC in H1 2026, signaling market maturation and continued confidence in regulatory stability and clarity. Look towards companies shifting toward a bottom-line focus over growth at all costs. Increased liquidity, will increase acquisition appetite and competition driving premium-value exits.
Beyond 2026: Following a potential final wave of IPOs (OKX, Crypto.com, etc.), the capacity of U.S. public markets may be reached. Future returns may pivot to traditional incumbents (banks/fintech) buying and building market share, as beginning to be evidenced in recent deals (Stripe/Bridge, Robinhood/Bitstamp).